Critical Metals, Bioeconomy and Industrial Sovereignty

Introduction: nickel at the heart of the major strategic fault lines

The geopolitics of natural resources is once again becoming one of the most structuring determinants of global industrial competitiveness. After decades of globalisation in which raw material supply appeared to be guaranteed by the markets, the return of geopolitical tension, the rise of national reindustrialisation policies and the urgency of the energy transition are bringing back into the light a reality that was long ignored: control over critical metals determines industrial control.

In March 2024, the European Parliament adopted the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), identifying 34 strategic raw materials whose security of supply is considered indispensable to the Union's twin digital and climate transitions. Nickel features prominently on that list. Europe imports more than 90% of its primary nickel, mainly from Indonesia, Russia and the Philippines — a structural dependency that exposes European industry to multiple, converging risks. Industrial phytomining represents an original and promising answer to this challenge.

1. The geopolitics of nickel: anatomy of a critical dependency

1.1 A dangerously concentrated global production base

In 2023, Indonesia produced more than 1.7 million tonnes of contained nickel — over 50% of global output — driven by massive investment from Chinese industrial groups in integrated complexes. Russia, through Norilsk Nickel, remains the world's leading producer of refined class 1 nickel, supplying a significant share of European needs despite the uncertainties surrounding sanctions. The Philippines present growing environmental and regulatory risks. New Caledonia, a French territory, went through major crises between 2021 and 2024 that severely affected its production.

1.2 The many dimensions of supply risk

• Geopolitical risk: any tension with Russia, Indonesia or the Philippines can trigger major disruption. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a brutal reminder of this, sending metal prices soaring
• Price risk: the concentration of supply generates significant market power. The historic LME short squeeze of March 2022 — when the nickel price briefly exceeded $100,000/t — illustrates how vulnerable exposed manufacturers are
• ESG risk: the environmental practices of many South-East Asian mines are not aligned with European standards, exposing importers to growing compliance risks
• CBAM carbon risk: the high carbon intensity of most imported nickel exposes European manufacturers to a growing CBAM burden

Europe's dependency on nickel is not simply a matter of commercial competitiveness — it is a systemic risk that brings together geopolitics, market volatility, ESG compliance and carbon regulation. These four dimensions reinforce one another.

2. The Critical Raw Materials Act: framework and industrial opportunity

2.1 The CRMA's quantified targets

The CRMA sets ambitious targets for 2030 across all critical raw materials, nickel included:

• Local extraction: at least 10% of the EU's annual needs must be extracted on European territory or in strategic partner countries
• Local processing: at least 40% of the EU's annual needs must be processed and transformed on European territory
• Recycling: at least 15% of annual needs covered by recycled nickel
• Capping dependency: for each critical material, the share of any single third country in EU supply must not exceed 65%

For nickel, all four targets remain a long way off today. Dependency on Indonesia already exceeds the 65% threshold for certain categories, and European extraction of primary nickel is limited to a handful of Finnish sites and projects under development in the Balkans.

2.2 The CRMA's support instruments

The CRMA provides for concrete instruments: priority status in permitting procedures (timelines cut to 27 months for extraction and 15 months for processing), easier access to European public funding (EIB, cohesion funds, InvestEU), and a coordination framework between member states. Phytomining, as an innovative extraction technology with a low environmental footprint, is particularly well placed to benefit from that status.

3. The circular bioeconomy as a scalable industrial model

3.1 The bioeconomy of critical metals

The bioeconomy refers to the use of biological resources and processes as inputs to economic production, in substitution for conventional fossil and mineral resources. Applied to critical metals, it opens up radically new routes for extracting and concentrating metals: bioleaching (micro-organisms), phytoextraction (hyperaccumulator plants), bioadsorption (algae). Among these approaches, phytomining stands out for its relative technological maturity and its compatibility with conventional thermochemical treatment processes.

3.2 The scalability levers of industrial phytomining

• Extending cultivated areas on marginal land — ultramafic soils that do not compete with food agriculture — found across many European and global regions
• Continuous improvement in varietal yields thanks to accelerated genetic selection and high-throughput phenotyping tools
• Geographic expansion into the world's major ophiolite belts: the Balkans, the eastern Mediterranean, the Iberian peninsula, Turkey, New Caledonia, sub-Saharan Africa
• Co-valorisation of residual biomass: bioenergy production, high-carbon-value biochar, manufacture of agricultural biostimulants
• Modularity of treatment facilities: processing units of variable size deployed as close as possible to growing areas, cutting logistics costs

3.3 Risk-return profile for investors

• Geological risk: close to nil — nickel-bearing ophiolite zones are mapped and their soil characteristics well documented
• Permitting risk: low to moderate — agricultural activities benefit from a more favourable regulatory framework than mining projects
• Technology risk: moderate in the initial phase, declining as the first industrial demonstrations accumulate experience
• Market risk: structurally low — nickel demand driven by durable megatrends, with a "green nickel" premium developing under the effect of CSRD and CBAM
• Initial capex: significantly lower than a conventional mine, with a more gradual investment curve

4. Phytomining within the industrial deeptech ecosystem

4.1 The AgriTech × IndustryTech convergence

Nickel phytomining illustrates a deep trend in European industrial venture: the convergence between AgriTech, advanced materials and heavy industrial transformation. That convergence is particularly powerful in critical metals, where it combines a high scientific barrier to entry, proven industrial outlets, and perfect alignment with European regulatory megatrends.

For venture capital funds specialising in industrial deeptech or materials cleantech, phytomining players present an atypical and attractive investment profile. The technology benefits from solid scientific validation — thirty years of academic research worldwide — with the first industrial proofs of concept now being consolidated. And the addressable market is underwritten by structural nickel demand set to double by 2030.

4.2 Why industrial partnerships matter

One of the most important features of the phytomining development model is how central partnerships are between scientific players, agronomic operators and metallurgical manufacturers. This multi-stakeholder co-development model is often cited as one of the most effective for industrial deeptech with long maturation periods. By combining scientific excellence, agronomic operating know-how and industrial and commercial firepower, these partnerships narrow the technological "valley of death" that strikes so many deeptech projects between proof of concept and industrialisation.

4.3 An ecosystem taking shape

Around industrial phytomining, an ecosystem of complementary players is gradually taking shape: European university laboratories advancing the understanding of hyperaccumulation mechanisms and varietal improvement techniques, agricultural seed players identifying hyperaccumulators as an emerging segment, marginal land management operators exploring synergies with phytomining, equipment manufacturers developing modular thermochemical treatment units suited to metal-bearing biomass, and certification bodies working to establish quality standards for biosourced nickel.

5. Horizons and outlook

5.1 Quantifying the global potential

Available research has identified several million hectares of ultramafic soils with phytomining potential worldwide. In Europe alone, the ophiolite zones of the Balkans, the Iberian peninsula and Turkey offer significant surface areas. At stabilised yields, an ambitious rollout could contribute several tens of thousands of tonnes of biosourced nickel a year by 2035-2040 — that is, 1% to 3% of projected global demand: strategically significant for reducing dependency and decarbonising value chains.

5.2 The emergence of a certified green nickel market

One of the most structuring commercial questions is the construction of a market for "certified green nickel" — along the lines of green steel or low-carbon aluminium. Today, nickel trades as a relatively homogeneous commodity on the LME. But CBAM/CSRD regulatory pressure and responsible procurement policies are creating the structural conditions for a market premium on low-carbon-footprint nickel to emerge. Those who build their production infrastructure and certification framework ahead of that market's maturity will enjoy a considerable first-mover advantage.

5.3 What the sector needs in order to succeed

Building a mature phytomining sector rests on several simultaneous conditions: validating economic profitability at industrial scale; creating and adopting certification standards recognised by market participants; integrating bio-ore into long-term supply contracts with stainless steel manufacturers; developing dedicated financing mechanisms (green bonds, blended finance, carbon credits); and active support from European industrial policy through the CRMA's instruments.

Conclusion

In a world where the geopolitics of resources is redrawing industrial value chains, where European regulation is forcing manufacturers to rethink their sourcing, and where nickel demand is growing inexorably under the impetus of the energy transition, industrial phytomining embodies an original, scalable answer that is perfectly aligned with the imperatives of our times.

By combining supply sovereignty, certifiable decarbonisation, low environmental impact and roots in the circular bioeconomy, this sector traces a novel path towards a post-fossil extractive industry. Over the longer term, it could help redefine the way industrial societies extract and add value to all the critical metals their energy transition requires. For those working in green finance, industrial deeptech and industrial policy, the window for observing and acting on this transformational sector is open — and first-mover positions will be decisive.